Preparing for Russia’s New Generation Warfare in Europe

Russia is escalating hybrid warfare against NATO members, transitioning from opportunistic operations to a coordinated 'New Generation Warfare' (NGW) campaign over the next two years. The strategy integrates cyberattacks, sabotage operations, influence campaigns, and territorial violations to degrade NATO unity and critical infrastructure. Key tactics include drone airspace violations, undersea cable targeting, energy dependence exploitation, and simultaneous multi-domain attacks designed to overwhelm defenses. Organizations should anticipate increased frequency and geographic breadth of attacks targeting aviation networks, communications systems, and energy infrastructure. The campaign aims to prepare physical and psychological conditions for potential military escalation, with Putin likely viewing the period before the 2028 US presidential election as optimal for testing NATO defenses. Mitigation priorities include critical infrastructure hardening, enhanced monitoring for influence operations, and cross-sector coordination to withstand multi-vector attacks.

Russia is escalating its hybrid warfare against NATO into a coordinated, full-scale campaign blending cyber attacks, sabotage, and influence operations. Read the full report to understand what New Generation Warfare means for your organization.

Russia is escalating hybrid warfare against NATO members, transitioning from opportunistic operations to a coordinated 'New Generation Warfare' (NGW) campaign over the next two years. The strategy integrates cyberattacks, sabotage operations, influence campaigns, and territorial violations to degrade NATO unity and critical infrastructure. Key tactics include drone airspace violations, undersea cable targeting, energy dependence exploitation, and simultaneous multi-domain attacks designed to overwhelm defenses. Organizations should anticipate increased frequency and geographic breadth of attacks targeting aviation networks, communications systems, and energy infrastructure. The campaign aims to prepare physical and psychological conditions for potential military escalation, with Putin likely viewing the period before the 2028 US presidential election as optimal for testing NATO defenses. Mitigation priorities include critical infrastructure hardening, enhanced monitoring for influence operations, and cross-sector coordination to withstand multi-vector attacks. Russia is escalating its hybrid warfare against NATO into a coordinated, full-scale campaign blending cyber attacks, sabotage, and influence operations. Read the full report to understand what New Generation Warfare means for your organization. Executive Summary Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has waged what we assess is largely opportunistic, though increasingly aggressive, hybrid warfare in NATO territory. Moscow has very likely not yet leveraged its full capability to integrate cyber, political, and sabotage tools into a full-scale campaign. Over the next two years, Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely escalate Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against NATO members into a full-fledged campaign likely consistent with a Russian military doctrine called New Generation Warfare (NGW). Putin will likely use this campaign to degrade NATO political unity and defense capabilities, reinforce Russia’s network of overt and covert assets across NATO, and optimize the physical and political environment, should Putin decide to launch a military incursion into NATO territory. In a full-scale NGW campaign in NATO territory, Russia would likely move from its current pattern of influence operations efforts combined with largely opportunistic cyber and sabotage targeting to a Europe-wide campaign that is more intentionally planned and aims to project Russian power and weaken European defenses on a systemic level. An NGW campaign would very likely involve Russia using the same tactics it is currently using, including sabotage operations, influence operations, territorial waters and airspace violations, and exploitation of some NATO states’ dependence on Russian oil and gas. The primary differences between Russia’s current operations in Europe and an NGW campaign would include greater geographic breadth of those operations; greater frequency of operations; and Russia likely using tactics simultaneously and in coordinated ways. For example, likely Russia-directed threat actors might use a drone to violate the airspace over a NATO state’s airport, forcing the temporary closure of that airport, coupled with a distributed denial-of-service attack on the airport’s internal communications system. Russia might then post a video of the incidents through one of its overt or covert propaganda outlets, arguing that they show NATO cannot adequately protect its aviation network. An NGW campaign in NATO territory would very likely have significant implications for private and public sector entities, including degradation of critical infrastructure, reputational risk for individuals and companies named in Russian influence operation campaigns, and reduced public confidence in the government’s ability to ensure their safety. Over the next three to five years, Putin will likely evaluate the feasibility of moving from an NGW-like campaign in Europe to a kinetic military incursion. Factors Putin would likely weigh when making such a decision include NATO military capabilities, the likelihood that the US would defend a NATO state if it were attacked, and Russian military capabilities. However, even if the necessary conditions for such an operation emerge, the probability of a proactive Russian military operation into NATO territory very likely remains low. Key Findings Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign in NATO territory between February 2022 and January 2026 has been increasingly aggressive, but likely opportunistic and not reflective of Russia’s full cyber, influence operations, and sabotage capabilities. Putin likely views the next two years as an opportunity to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and prepare the physical and psychological environment, should he decide to launch a military incursion. Putin likely assesses that the 2028 US presidential election could lead to a US president more willing to commit US resources to NATO. As such, Putin...