Understanding and Anticipating Venezuelan Government Actions

Explore an in-depth analysis of Venezuela’s political landscape following the January 2026 US operation to capture Nicolás Maduro. This executive summary examines Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s transition strategy, her pragmatic re-engagement with Washington, and the internal threats posed by PSUV rivals like Diosdado Cabello. Gain insights into the "three-phase" US plan for stabilization, the 2026 Organic Hydrocarbons Law reforms, and the outlook for economic recovery versus the existential threat of competitive elections. Essential intelligence for organizations monitoring Latin American geopolitical risk and energy sector investments.

Explore an in-depth analysis of Venezuela’s political landscape following the January 2026 US operation to capture Nicolás Maduro. This executive summary examines Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s transition strategy, her pragmatic re-engagement with Washington, and the internal threats posed by PSUV rivals like Diosdado Cabello. Gain insights into the "three-phase" US plan for stabilization, the 2026 Organic Hydrocarbons Law reforms, and the outlook for economic recovery versus the existential threat of competitive elections. Essential intelligence for organizations monitoring Latin American geopolitical risk and energy sector investments. Executive Summary Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguezʼs policy decisions will affect economic and political stability in Venezuela in the coming months. Her approach will likely be shaped by a deep familiarity with the state security apparatus, her revolutionary identity, a demonstrated willingness to break from orthodoxy and seek coordination with Washington, an interest in restoring support for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela PSUV, and a long memory for perceived slights. These principles, paired with changing local power dynamics after the January 3, 2026, United States US special operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, suggest Rodríguez is very likely to prioritize near-term governability and economic stabilization over maximalist ideological positioning. At the same time, she will likely find ways to cooperate with the US in ways designed to preserve the rule of PSUV and her credibility with other members of the ruling coalition. Rodríguezʼs core objectives are very likely to preserve PSUV rule and resist an opposition-led transfer of power, while maximizing the economic benefits of reengagement with Washington, including sanctions relief, investment, and a possible economic recovery. This will likely contribute to Rodríguez governing in a manner that avoids high-risk moves that could fracture her coalition or trigger instability that undermines her utility to the White House. In this approach, the biggest internal threat she faces in the short term is very likely PSUV rivals, including Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and other military and economic elites who perceive US engagement as a direct threat to their interests. While it is impossible to predict every move the Venezuelan government may take, public and private organizations can better anticipate risks to stability and investments — such as resistance to US-supported reforms or evidence of internal divisions in the regime — by systematically monitoring the rhetoric and actions of Delcy Rodríguez, Diosdado Cabello, and other senior officials using the Recorded Future® Intelligence Operations Platform Key Findings The January 3, 2026, US operation provoked panic among Venezuelan elites and fueled deep uncertainty regarding the plan to succeed Maduro, which was only resolved when US signaling prompted Venezuelan institutions to confirm that Rodríguez would assume presidential duties. Rodríguezʼs hold on power is threatened internally by rival PSUV figures, chief among them Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and his network of allies across Venezuelaʼs security apparatus and among pro-government armed groups. Externally, the main threats to Rodríguezʼs power stem from US leverage over Caracas, including US geopolitical aims to bring Venezuela further under Washingtonʼs influence as well as US officialsʼ stated pursuit of a transition and support for the opposition faction led by María Corina Machado. To avoid a destabilizing rupture that could trigger US backlash, Delcy Rodríguez will very likely prioritize internal governability and economic stabilization, cooperating with Washington enough to see sustained sanctions relief while seeking to manage rather than expel hardline rivals from her coalition. To preserve her own credibility and influence in Venezuela, Rodríguez is likely to pair compliance with Washingtonʼs demands with “face-savingˮ gestures that assert Venezuelan sovereignty, and to resist genuinely competitive elections unless economic gains materially improve the PSUVʼs electoral odds. Assessing Current Dynamics in Venezuela Over the past 25 years, US-Venezuela relations have worsened as Venezuela’s government actively sought to oppose US interests in the Western Hemisphere, deepened relations with US rivals around the globe, and became increasingly authoritarian. This began under the deceased former president Hugo Chávez, whose movement, known as “Chavismo,” has governed the country since 1999. After Nicolás Maduro took power in Venezuela following Chávez’s death in 2013, he accelerated the consolidation of power and the erosion of democratic institutions begun by his predecessor. The US responded by imposing financial and oil sanctions meant to limit Venezuela’s ability to profit from its vast oil reserves and...