Iran War: Future Scenario and Business Improvements

This Insikt Group analysis examines potential future scenarios of the Iran conflict over the next 6-12 months using PESTLE-M and Cone of Plausibility methodologies. The baseline scenario projects a fragile ceasefire with sustained economic disruption, intermittent Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and elevated cyber activity targeting energy and critical infrastructure. The report identifies Iran, the US, Israel, and Gulf States as primary actors in this conflict. Key concerns include volatile energy markets, supply chain disruptions, and increased systemic risk across critical sectors. Cyber operations are noted as intensifying, with operations increasingly targeting infrastructure. Russia and China are identified as secondary beneficiaries of sustained regional instability. Organizations should prepare for prolonged economic warfare and intermittent cyber threats against regional and Western-linked targets.

Iran War: Future Scenarios and Business Implications

This Insikt Group analysis examines potential future scenarios of the Iran conflict over the next 6-12 months using PESTLE-M and Cone of Plausibility methodologies. The baseline scenario projects a fragile ceasefire with sustained economic disruption, intermittent Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and elevated cyber activity targeting energy and critical infrastructure. The report identifies Iran, the US, Israel, and Gulf States as primary actors in this conflict. Key concerns include volatile energy markets, supply chain disruptions, and increased systemic risk across critical sectors. Cyber operations are noted as intensifying, with operations increasingly targeting infrastructure. Russia and China are identified as secondary beneficiaries of sustained regional instability. Organizations should prepare for prolonged economic warfare and intermittent cyber threats against regional and Western-linked targets. Iran War: Future Scenarios and Business Implications Current State (April 10) Severe tensions persist despite a two-week ceasefire: The agreement remains fragile and conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz; each side has already accused Iran War: Future Scenarios and Business Implications the other of violations. Maritime flows partially resume but remain uncertain: Disruptions and elevated security risks persist. President Trump has signaled readiness to resume strikes on Iranian infrastructure if ceasefire conditions are not met. Economic conditions remain unstable: Energy markets remain volatile, with continued pressure on supply chains. Shipping, insurance, and aviation activity are only partially restored. Inside Iran, infrastructure damage is driving power shortages and industrial disruption. Cyber activity has intensified : Operations targeting energy and critical infrastructure are increasing, reinforcing systemic risk across key sectors. Figure 1 : An explosion in Tehran, February 28, 2026 (Source: PBS ) Figure 2: Cone of Plausibility Overview: Iran Conflict (Source: Recorded Future) Framework Overview To assess how the Iran conflict could evolve over the next 6–12 months, Insikt Group analyzed regional and global dynamics using the PESTLE-M framework, covering Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental, and Military domains, with a focus on Iran, the United States, Israel, and Gulf States. Figure 3: PESTLE-M Framework (Source: Recorded Future) This analysis informed a scenario generation exercise using a Cone of Plausibility (CoP) method. The objective was not to predict a single outcome, but to explore a range of alternative futures based on observed signals and emerging trends. Wildcard Plausible Baseline Plausible Figure 4: Cone of Plausibility Framework (Source: Recorded Future) Methodology For each PESTLE-M category, we identified key drivers that could increase or decrease the likelihood of escalation, de-escalation, or sustained instability, and assessed how these dynamics may evolve under different assumptions . These were combined to develop six scenarios : one baseline , two plausible (best and worst case), and three wildcard scenarios, enabling organizations to evaluate how the conflict may unfold and the potential impacts on their operating environment. Within the CoP framework: Drivers are signals and trends that could shape future developments Assumptions reflect how those drivers may evolve over time Scenarios describe how these dynamics could combine to produce distinct future states We define scenarios as follows: Baseline : A forward projection of current trends and conditions Plausible : A realistic alternative outcome based on evolving drivers and assumptions Wildcard : A low-probability, high-impact scenario that challenges existing assumptions Baseline Scenario: Fragile Ceasefire with Sustained Economic Disruption Key Drivers and Assumptions Figure 5: Brent oil prices and projections (Source: Oxford Economics ) Figure 6: Iran is also threatening maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab, another key route (Source: Times of India ) Ceasefire holds, but conflict shifts into sustained economic warfare. A fragile ceasefire reduces the pace of direct military exchanges strikes, but the drivers of conflict remain unresolved. Iran lacks the capacity for decisive escalation but retains asymmetric leverage, while the US prioritizes energy market stability and conflict containment. The Strait of Hormuz reopens only intermittently, with recurring disruptions, inspections, and security incidents, keeping shipping, insurance, and energy markets under sustained pressure. Gulf financial, logistics, and technology sectors operate intermittently, airlines maintain some route suspensions, and cyber activity remains elevated against regional infrastructure and Western-linked organizations. The conflict evolves into economic coercion as a primary tool, driving elevated oil and gas prices, persistent market volatility, and tighter financing conditions. Supply...